The First 13 Games

It seems like the worst possible way for the Red Sox to start the season; through 13 games, they are 4-9, and have lost five in a row. They already have two different 3-game losing streaks, and the season is only two weeks old. Many Red Sox fans are panicking, declaring that the season is already over, and the team might as well have a firesale and start rebuilding for the future. Sure, it's a lousy start, but how does it compare to other lousy starts in the team's history, and how did those teams fare for the rest of the season. So, here we go, the top 10 (technically, top 14) worst Red Sox teams after 13 games, plus their final regular season record:

7. 2010, 4-9, ??-??
7. 1984, 4-9, 86-76
7. 1972, 4-9, 85-70
7. 1958, 4-9, 79-75
7. 1954, 4-9, 69-85
7. 1943, 4-9, 68-84
7. 1933, 4-9, 63-86
7. 1929, 4-9, 58-96
3. 1966, 3-10, 72-90
3. 1932, 3-10, 43-111
3. 1925, 3-10, 47-105
3. 1905, 3-10, 78-74
1. 1996, 2-11, 85-77
1. 1927, 2-11, 51-103

Of the teams that have gone before, seven of them have had identical records as the 2010 Red Sox thus far. Of those, three finished above .500 for the season, and overall five of the previous 13 teams with identical or worse records have finished over .500. Not exactly the bext company to be in; many of the teams on the list were from the infamously bad teams of the late 20's and early 30's. The best that any Sox team has done after such a rough start was the 1984 team, which finished at a respectable 86-76, although this was only good enough for 4th in the seven-team AL East. Interestingly enough, within a month of this rough start, the Sox called up a rookie pitcher named Roger Clemens...

But, now that I've broken down the worst through 13 games, which teams fared the best in the same time period, and how did they end up? Because so many teams started off 9-4, I'm only going to list the six teams that won 10 or more of their first 13:

3. 1993, 10-3, 80-82
3. 1952, 10-3, 76-78
3. 1946, 10-3, 104-50-2
3. 1904, 10-3, 95-59-3
2. 1920, 10-2-1, 72-81-1
1. 1918, 11-2, 75-51

This list is interesting because it includes, as expected, three pennant-winning teams (1946, 1918, and 1904), but the other three not only didn't win the pennant, they didn't even finish over .500! So, while starting out 4-9 or worse seems to generally bode poorly for the Sox, starting 10-3 or better seems to be little indication on how the rest of the season will play out. So, I think it can be concluded that 13 games are a very small sample size (8% of the entire season) so just because the 2010 Sox started 4-9, it doesn't mean they are going to end up 50-112 at the end of the season. But still, it is concerning to see so many poor teams and no playoff teams at all have started 9-4 or worse. I guess we'll know within the next five months...