Last September had one of the most dramatic playoff races in recent memory, with both wild card races going down to the last day of the season, largely thanks to astonishing collapses on the part of the Red Sox and Braves. However, this September looks to be even more dramatic, for several reasons.
First, the addition of two new wild card spots has accomplished several things; it has enabled even more teams to remain in contention, and it has also made winning the division more of a priority. As of right now, half of all MLB teams are still in contention (3.5 games back or fewer) for a playoff spot. However, those in contention will need to carefully consider their strategy going forward for the rest of the month. In previous years, since the wild card was introduced in 1995, teams that have clinched the wild card but that have barely been in contention for the division title have often chosen to "settle" for the wild card, and rest their starters in preparation for the playoffs.
The new playoff format, however, changes that. Now, the league's two wild card winners must face off in a one-game playoff, while division winners automatically advance to the LDS. This will make things particularly interesting in the last week of the season - should a manager rest his starters (especially his ace pitcher) for the wild card playoff, or should the team go all out in the last week and hope to win the division? Obviously, anything can happen in one game, so teams would be hesitant to roll the dice on it if they don't have to. Plus, A team will most likely use their best starter for that game, which leaves them (most likely) unavailable to pitch more than once in the LDS. So, while adding the wild card may have reduced the importance of winning the division, the addition of a second one has had the opposite effect, and has kept teams playing competitively for longer.
The second reason why this September is shaping up to be significant is the fact that there is no single team that appears poised to win it all. The Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets are hopelessly out of the running. The Yankees just blew a 10 game lead and are in free-fall mode. The Dodgers, despite making one of the biggest in-season trades in baseball history, are third in the wild card race. The Angels, despite having Albert Pujols, plus contenders for Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year on their team, are a couple losses away from being out of contention.
In their place, teams like the Orioles, Nationals, and Reds are leading their divisions. The Pirates, who haven't had a winning record since the first Bush administration, are just two games out of the wild card race. The A's, who haven't been relevant since being swept in the ALCS in 2006, are somehow winning despite being made up of a combination of untested young players and aging cast-offs from other teams. So, without a strong, clear favorite, the playoffs and the World Series are wide open for any one of a number of teams to step forward and win it all. This should certainly be an interesting September and October to watch.
My call? Reds over Rangers in 5.
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